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Summary:
We randomly split the CFO survey panel into two separate surveys around the 2024 US elections to discern whether the results of the elections had any impact on financial decision makers' expectations. Respondents to the post-election survey reported sharply higher optimism about the US economy and an improved macroeconomic outlook relative to the pre-election responses. In contrast, own-firm optimism and revenue growth expectations were not meaningfully changed between the two surveys. Among many possible reasons for this disconnect, we highlight the expected impact of the new administration's policies and attendant uncertainty related to these policies.
Key findings:
- Following the 2024 US elections, financial decision makers revised higher their optimism about the US economy and their expectations for near-term economic growth.
- Respondents did not upgrade expectations for their own-firm performance commensurate with the change in their macroeconomic forecasts, suggesting that firms do not (yet) expect a meaningful impact from the election on their firm's performance.
Center Affiliation: Economic Survey Research Center
JEL classification: C83, D22, D70
Key words: business survey, economic growth, optimism, policies
https://doi.org/10.29338/ph2025-02
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